Abiy Ahmed’s European Tour: Diplomacy and Shadows of War

Abiy Ahmed’s European Tour: Diplomacy and Shadows of War

Original article in Italian: https://www.affaritaliani.it/esteri/il-tour-europeo-di-abiy-ahmed-diplomazia-e-ombre-di-guerra-972844.html

Between Paris, Rome, and the Vatican, the Ethiopian Prime Minister seeks political and financial support in view of a possible new war against Eritrea. At home, economic crisis and repression fuel opposition to the government.

On May 22nd, French President Emmanuel Macron received Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Paris. An almost unexpected visit, following Macron’s trip to Addis Ababa on December 21, 2024, with the declared goal of strengthening bilateral relations, based on strategic friendship. The conversations between Abiy and Macron were “constructive,” wrote the Ethiopian Prime Minister on social media. Macron, for his part, stated on X that France sees a “prosperous and peaceful” future in Ethiopia.

France, however, was not the only European stop on the May tour. A few days later, the Prime Minister flew to Rome to meet with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Leo XIV. He instead cancelled the planned stop in the UK. In London, in fact, the Ethiopian diaspora had taken to the streets, protesting against a potential visit, denouncing massacres taking place in the Amhara region and the arrests of parliamentarians and opponents in Addis Ababa.

Officially, the purpose of the European trip was to attract new investments in Ethiopia. In reality, Abiy is aiming to secure political support from the European Union. France might convince its German partner, while Prime Minister Meloni could act as a mediator with the more conservative European governments.

Italian media, which according to recent data dedicate a scarce 14% of their coverage to East Africa, ignored the arrival of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, with the exception of press agencies. Differently, Augustine Passilly, a French correspondent from Addis Ababa, published an analysis of the trip in Le Point, also citing sources helpful in understanding its deeper aims beyond the apparent ones.

“The main element of this tour,” says Mahdì Labzaè, a researcher at the CNRS (National Center for Scientific Research) and Africa expert, “was to test the reaction of allied countries in the event of a new war against Eritrea. Moreover, the regime, on the brink of bankruptcy, is desperately seeking funding.”

The economic crisis is severe. The 265 million dollars that the International Monetary Fund is expected to give Ethiopia at the end of June will not be enough to lift a country where, according to a recent internal report, 26% of the 130 million inhabitants live in extreme poverty.

At a time when the economy is collapsing and domestic consensus is nonexistent, Abiy seems to want to shift attention to an external target: Eritrea.
After Italian colonialism, and following years of federation and annexation to Ethiopia, Eritrea gained independence in 1991. From 1998 to 2000, however, war erupted again between the two countries, and the subsequent Algiers Agreements did not bring real peace, but rather a state of “no war.” Only with the arrival of Prime Minister Abiy in 2018 did dialogue resume, which has once again entered crisis after the Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigray.

Now Prime Minister Abiy is asking Eritrea to establish a commercial port and, above all, a naval base in Assab. He has called the loss of that port after Eritrea’s independence a “historic mistake.”
In reality, Eritrea has never denied access to the ports of Massawa and Assab for commercial activity. As for historical ownership, the ports have never belonged to Ethiopia except during the years of federation, annexation, and military occupation. Independent Eritrea has reclaimed its territory, marked by former colonial borders that included the ports.

The idea that a large country must have access to the sea might find receptive ears in Europe, although no European leader has so far openly supported this position. However, Abiy’s travel itinerary reveals the intent to gain support in case of war against Eritrea.
What seems to reassure Prime Minister Abiy are France’s friendly tones. Macron did not hold back smiles and handshakes, despite accusations of serious human rights violations in the Amhara and Oromo regions.

Another card Abiy is playing is his commitment to upholding the Pretoria Agreement (2022), signed after two years of war between the Ethiopian government (also supported by Eritrea) and the TPLF. However, today the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is divided, and the faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael has grown closer to Eritrea, fearing precisely the possibility of a new war initiated by Abiy.

Besides the diplomatic route, Abiy is also seeking military support from Turkey, which has already supplied drones used in the bombings in the Amhara region, and from the United Arab Emirates, which could support him in a war against Eritrea.
According to internal sources, in recent months Ethiopian troops have been amassing along the Eritrean border.

Europe is also mentioned by Desta Tilahum, Secretary General of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, who says:
“We need diplomatic relations with the European Union, but they must benefit the people, not just one leader. European politicians must know that in Ethiopia people die every day of hunger, internal conflict, and inflation. Children are not going to school, and young people are forced to fight. I’ve never seen such chaos. If Ethiopia collapses, the world will suffer the consequences.”

The opposition, often silenced or repressed, fears that Abiy’s trip to Europe was intended to gather new funds not to relieve the crisis but to complete luxury projects and strengthen the government’s power. In Rome, the Prime Minister also met Pietro Salini, CEO of Webuild, a construction company set to complete the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), but which had previously complained of payment delays.

Meanwhile, in mid-May, a massive healthcare workers’ strike broke out in Ethiopia to protest poor working conditions and low wages. The strikes were followed by repression, with hundreds of arrests, as reported by Amnesty International.

Abiy’s tour concluded at the Vatican, with a meeting with Pope Leo XIV. On social media, the Prime Minister thanked him for the “warm welcome” and for the shared commitment to global peace. A message that rings ambivalent, on the eve of a possible new conflict with Eritrea — a prospect feared by many.